FSPro

 

The FSPro model in WFDSS predicts probable fire growth beyond the timeframes of reliable weather forecasts (3 through 5 days) using historical climatological data. Review this definition of the "FSPro Model":

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Glossary

Fire Spread Probability model (FSPro model) (WFDSS)
A geospatial model designed to obtain probable fire growth predictions for more than 5 days (long term).


Examples of information that can be obtained using the FSPro model include:

  • There is a 5% probability the fire will reach the planning area boundary to the east; however, suppression actions are currently under way that will impede the fire spread.
  • If no management actions are taken, there is a 60 to 80% probability the fire will reach values at risk located south of Buckhorn Road.
  • If no management actions are taken, there is a 20 to 40% probability the fire will reach the Red Feather Lakes Road and Elkhorn drainage to the north and Spencer Heights to the west.
The FSPro model outputs can be easily misinterpreted, so it is critical for the SOPL to work closely with the LTAN to ensure the SOPL understands the outputs. There is an exercise later in this module where you will get experience with interpreting an FSPro output.

Below is an example of a map output from the FSPro model.

Example of a map output from the FSPro model.


Below is an example of a tabular output from the FSPro model that includes a list of values at risk (e.g., type and quantity) and the probability of the value being affect by the fire at some point in time.

Tabular output from the FSPro model, as described above.