1 00:00:01,580 --> 00:00:03,380 [radio traffic] 2 00:00:03,700 --> 00:00:05,860 Affirmative, we want to right down the middle of the road. 3 00:00:05,860 --> 00:00:12,760 It's kind of a grassy two track road, 1400 feet at 005 degrees, coverage level three. 4 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:47,080 My name is Rachel Hanson and I work for the Region 5 Module of 5 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,440 Aerial Firefighting Use and Effectiveness. 6 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,790 My background in fire started in 2003. 7 00:00:52,790 --> 00:00:57,960 I spent about nine seasons on a variety of Type 2 and Hotshot crews. 8 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,540 I worked for both Wolf Creek Hotshots and Asheville IHC. 9 00:01:01,540 --> 00:01:09,120 In August of 2014, I was hired to work for the Region 5 Module of AFUE that I currently work on 10 00:01:42,780 --> 00:01:46,060 Many kinds of scientific experiments were conducted 11 00:01:46,340 --> 00:01:47,980 and many chemicals tested. 12 00:01:49,740 --> 00:01:54,740 Research prepared the way for efficient use of this new tool. 13 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,680 When we look at the history of the agency, we have a lot of studies 14 00:02:05,690 --> 00:02:09,220 that have been done about how we use our aircraft. 15 00:02:09,220 --> 00:02:13,810 What all of them have done have gone back and looked at previous records. 16 00:02:13,810 --> 00:02:18,390 We can see how they're being ordered and where they're being deployed to and things like 17 00:02:18,390 --> 00:02:23,090 that, but we don't have anything that actually captures what they're doing on the line or 18 00:02:23,090 --> 00:02:26,340 how effective they are or what the outcome is. 19 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,360 The history of AFUE started because ... 20 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:34,940 The forest service wanted to look more at how we were using our aircraft and how effective we were being with the aircraft. 21 00:02:34,940 --> 00:02:40,010 This program was kind of developed to start looking at ways to look in the field at how 22 00:02:40,010 --> 00:02:44,260 we could collect data on performance and effectiveness of our aerial fleet. 23 00:02:44,700 --> 00:02:46,820 [radio: Let's just go the full load there.] 24 00:02:46,940 --> 00:02:51,260 My name is Sean Wildhaber and I work on the Region 1 Aerial Firefighting Use 25 00:02:51,260 --> 00:02:52,640 and Effectiveness Module. 26 00:02:52,640 --> 00:02:57,650 I got my start with the Forest Service in 2002 on a district crew and I quickly moved to 27 00:02:57,650 --> 00:03:01,200 interagency Hotshot crews where I spent 12 years. 28 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:06,080 In 2015, I got on permanently with the Aerial Firefighting Use and Effectiveness program. 29 00:03:09,900 --> 00:03:13,080 Most of the individuals on our modules are highly qualified. 30 00:03:13,300 --> 00:03:19,040 Our quals range from ICT4 all the way up to ICT3 and qualified air attack, who 31 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,700 have come from smoke jumpers, engines, hotshot crews, 32 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,160 type 2 IA handcrews, and wildland fire modules. 33 00:03:25,340 --> 00:03:29,940 The operations side of what we do really helps us to integrate 34 00:03:29,940 --> 00:03:33,849 into what we're doing on the ground because we're talking the same languages the other 35 00:03:33,849 --> 00:03:35,330 individuals that are out there in the field. 36 00:03:35,330 --> 00:03:40,690 You have boots-on-the-ground firefighters interact with individuals in an operational 37 00:03:40,690 --> 00:03:46,200 setting who can stay safe and who can collect data and understand what they're looking at. 38 00:03:50,340 --> 00:03:58,920 I've been the Incident Commander of probably maybe a handful of large incidents 39 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,420 where AFUE folks have interacted. 40 00:04:02,140 --> 00:04:09,320 Often times it's opportunity dependent per AFUE, what stage of an incident are you in, 41 00:04:09,330 --> 00:04:11,440 what's going on with the incident. 42 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:16,250 Are they there at a time when it's still evolving or are they there at a time when it's stable 43 00:04:16,250 --> 00:04:19,019 or maybe declining in activity? 44 00:04:19,019 --> 00:04:26,389 Every incident I think affords a different opportunity for both AFUE to get data but 45 00:04:26,389 --> 00:04:32,080 also to interact in real time with fire managers and line supervisors. 46 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:39,129 I've had some good conversations with people like Chris Bolts on incidents about what it 47 00:04:39,129 --> 00:04:45,689 is that they've seen, what they're seeing in real time, or maybe a day or two later 48 00:04:45,689 --> 00:04:47,639 of what it is that they gathered. 49 00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:54,449 It helped to either reinforce what my thoughts were about why we did some of the things we 50 00:04:54,449 --> 00:04:56,770 did and made the decisions we made. 51 00:04:56,770 --> 00:05:01,080 Maybe we ended up with a slightly different outcome and I learned something 52 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,999 from the data that they at least preliminarily collected. 53 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:10,949 They've generally all been good experiences and not impactful to our operations. 54 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:17,940 AFUE modules are fully funded and self sufficient, so when we arrive to an incident 55 00:05:17,949 --> 00:05:22,509 that incident doesn't have to worry about a cost that's incurred by us being there. 56 00:05:22,509 --> 00:05:27,029 We're there to do our job but we're not there to impact that incident or the management 57 00:05:27,029 --> 00:05:28,080 team in any way. 58 00:05:28,620 --> 00:05:32,700 We go to briefing just like every other resource on the fire. 59 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,800 Our group, our module, is going to try and make contact with as many division supervisors 60 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,039 as we can and explain what we're doing. 61 00:05:41,039 --> 00:05:46,050 Once we go out onto the line, we make contact with division supervisors, we maintain communications, 62 00:05:46,050 --> 00:05:50,569 we do all of the typical things that a resource would normally do on a fire except we don't 63 00:05:50,569 --> 00:05:52,479 engage in operational suppression. 64 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:58,020 We're there specifically to watch tanker drops or helicopter drops or whatever is going on 65 00:05:58,020 --> 00:05:59,480 with the aerial resources. 66 00:06:02,700 --> 00:06:08,199 AFUE modules can generally arrive on an incident before, during, or after. 67 00:06:08,199 --> 00:06:14,069 For us, the prime time to actually be there is before or during so that we can actually 68 00:06:14,069 --> 00:06:16,639 watch aircraft as they're working. 69 00:06:16,639 --> 00:06:20,460 We can hear the interactions of aircraft with ground resources. 70 00:06:20,460 --> 00:06:25,840 We can listen to air-to-air so listening to air attack or an ASM that's coordinating those 71 00:06:25,840 --> 00:06:30,150 aircraft that are making retardant drops or water drops from rotor-wing. 72 00:06:30,740 --> 00:06:32,080 That's the best time. 73 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:37,110 We can arrive an an incident after and we can still provide pretty good data as long 74 00:06:37,110 --> 00:06:42,110 as we are talking to the role players that were on the incident at the time that the 75 00:06:42,110 --> 00:06:43,400 events were occurring. 76 00:06:44,260 --> 00:06:51,899 The questions that AFUE is looking at: How are our aerial assets being used? 77 00:06:51,899 --> 00:06:54,689 Are they being used effectively? 78 00:06:54,689 --> 00:06:59,120 What does our fleet need to look like now and in the future? 79 00:07:04,060 --> 00:07:08,199 Collecting real time data on incidents to try and capture as much 80 00:07:08,199 --> 00:07:14,219 as we can of what we're doing with our aerial fleet and how that corresponds with the ground 81 00:07:14,219 --> 00:07:17,180 resources and how they work together to be effective. 82 00:07:17,180 --> 00:07:22,319 The air show is really there to support the boots-on-the-ground that are fighting fire 83 00:07:22,319 --> 00:07:28,050 prepping roads burning out, protecting structures, and depending on how we employ 84 00:07:28,050 --> 00:07:33,460 those aviation assets effects probability of success for firefighters on the ground. 85 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:43,820 It's so difficult to measure effectiveness because it can be applied in a few different ways 86 00:07:43,900 --> 00:07:48,360 Direct application right to the fire itself, the fire's edge itself. 87 00:07:48,580 --> 00:07:53,979 We split a load half inside the black and half into the green to help slow a fire down when a crew is trying 88 00:07:53,979 --> 00:07:55,300 to get in. 89 00:07:55,300 --> 00:08:00,569 Where we intend the retardant to sort of act a bit like a suppressant and put 90 00:08:00,569 --> 00:08:06,120 some fire out but also like a retardant and slow our check fire spread. 91 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:12,080 Typically what we do with retardants is we pre-treat in advance of or in support of direct 92 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,380 and indirect line construction. 93 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:26,880 Say we're out on the line and we have a lot of tankers coming into drop. 94 00:08:26,980 --> 00:08:31,599 Generally what that looks like is we have one person engaged in operational 95 00:08:31,599 --> 00:08:36,589 situational awareness and that's usually ... For my module, that's usually our module leader. 96 00:08:36,589 --> 00:08:40,550 He maintains situational awareness, which means he's not actively engaged in collecting 97 00:08:40,550 --> 00:08:48,690 data so that the other two, myself and the other crew member, can focus on collecting data. 98 00:08:48,690 --> 00:08:54,790 What that looks like, one of us is engaged in note taking, the other is engaged in actual 99 00:08:54,790 --> 00:09:01,230 data collection, which generally is on an iPad and we use a collector application 100 00:09:01,230 --> 00:09:11,699 and that allows us to visually and geographically represent a drop in a landscape that has 63 101 00:09:11,699 --> 00:09:13,250 attributes attached to it. 102 00:09:13,250 --> 00:09:16,440 As ships come in and drop, we try to capture all of that. 103 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,620 We're pretty much doing the same type of work that field observers do. 104 00:09:20,629 --> 00:09:25,360 There's a caveat to that obviously, they're not mapping retardant generally or looking 105 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:31,680 at rotor-wing and mapping rotor-wing stuff, but fire perimeters, dozer lines, 106 00:09:31,680 --> 00:09:36,250 burn out operations, all that type of stuff, we're mapping that. 107 00:09:36,250 --> 00:09:41,250 We generally walk, drive, or fly perimeters because we have to have accurate perimeter 108 00:09:41,250 --> 00:09:46,020 mapping and we've found there's a great benefit to flying an incident as well because it's 109 00:09:46,020 --> 00:09:50,540 difficult when you have a canopy to see how the drops have been laid and how they progress 110 00:09:50,540 --> 00:09:55,160 but from an air perspective you can really see spatially how they've been put down. 111 00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:04,280 What that specifically means is that we look to capture not just 112 00:10:04,290 --> 00:10:09,190 what the aerial assets are doing but why they're being ordered, what they're actually doing 113 00:10:09,190 --> 00:10:10,690 when they get there. 114 00:10:10,690 --> 00:10:15,750 What is the outcome of their actions and we're also looking at that in conjunction with what 115 00:10:15,750 --> 00:10:17,649 ground people are doing. 116 00:10:17,649 --> 00:10:23,470 What the needs are on that fire, what's happening in the moment, and we're also looking at weather, 117 00:10:23,470 --> 00:10:29,279 terrain, all of the factors that go into the dynamic environment of wildland firefighting. 118 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:31,120 We try to paint an entire picture. 119 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,300 Then the data is ready to go through a statistical analysis so that we can look 120 00:10:56,300 --> 00:10:57,550 at probability of success. 121 00:10:57,550 --> 00:11:02,950 So that when we do look at what are our aerial assets doing and were 122 00:11:02,950 --> 00:11:09,620 they successful or unsuccessful, we understand as firefighters and fire managers that it's 123 00:11:09,620 --> 00:11:15,350 not a black and white scale of success or failure, but there in between is a whole gray 124 00:11:15,350 --> 00:11:21,370 scale where operational people and aerial assets can contribute to the success of a 125 00:11:21,370 --> 00:11:26,100 campaign even if one piece of what they're doing may not be successful. 126 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:37,220 As you're measuring effectiveness, I think one of the first things 127 00:11:37,220 --> 00:11:40,740 is trying to understand the intent in which it was applied. 128 00:11:40,740 --> 00:11:47,269 When we assigned outcomes, we try to align the outcomes with what happened based 129 00:11:47,269 --> 00:11:49,110 on the original intent. 130 00:11:49,110 --> 00:11:53,730 We try to figure out exactly what they wanted to do with that aerial resource and whether 131 00:11:53,730 --> 00:11:56,029 or not they felt like it met their needs. 132 00:11:56,029 --> 00:12:01,480 As capacity and need is constantly evaluated, there's been a lot more 133 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,800 subjectivity in effectiveness over the years. 134 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:11,910 To try to begin to get to a place where we can be a little more objective is an important 135 00:12:11,910 --> 00:12:16,910 task because I do think that there's a lot of room for growth in being more effective 136 00:12:16,910 --> 00:12:18,180 in how we apply retardant. 137 00:12:18,860 --> 00:12:27,340 By having quality information, by having good data, good numbers, good quantifiable terms, 138 00:12:27,350 --> 00:12:32,660 we can speak more intelligently to our line officers and our agency administrators 139 00:12:32,660 --> 00:12:39,040 and our public about our probabilities of success and that equates to ... All that data 140 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:43,439 equates to a stronger training program which then equates to a stronger foundation for 141 00:12:43,439 --> 00:12:49,010 our firefighters to be able to make sound decisions and have the tools that they need 142 00:12:49,010 --> 00:12:51,220 and be able to utilize them properly. 143 00:12:56,080 --> 00:13:00,180 To the operational fire community, the findings are going to be important 144 00:13:00,180 --> 00:13:03,780 because we're going to really be looking at the probability of success. 145 00:13:11,580 --> 00:13:16,360 We are only scratching the surface of what is there as far as looking at 146 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,199 How many times have I been in this situation before so that's what our data is going to provide. 147 00:13:20,199 --> 00:13:24,540 How many times has this situation happened in the past and how successful have we been 148 00:13:24,540 --> 00:13:26,740 in implementing tactics. 149 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:31,660 With the data that we're collecting, there will be abilities to look at decision 150 00:13:31,660 --> 00:13:35,280 support tools in the future that can provide that information. 151 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:39,920 Is that going to work in every scenario for every incident? 152 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,440 Probably not but what it's going to do is provide you with a tool that's going to allow 153 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:48,570 you to have a better probability of success because you already have seen examples from 154 00:13:48,570 --> 00:13:54,050 the past that are bringing you to the future of how well can I implement tactics with the 155 00:13:54,050 --> 00:13:56,780 resources I have and how effective am I going to be. 156 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:02,980 I think that the AFUE project is a wonderful effort to try to move 157 00:14:02,980 --> 00:14:12,300 us in a direction where we can be a bit more objective in how we view the effectiveness 158 00:14:12,300 --> 00:14:19,459 and subsequent value of retardant, but to be able to break it down farther and remove 159 00:14:19,459 --> 00:14:25,230 the layers of subjectivity to get more to the core objective approaches with retardant 160 00:14:25,230 --> 00:14:31,000 use is really ... I think is really where the value of that project and that effort is. 161 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,420 As I understand it, the aerial firefighting use and effectiveness study is 162 00:14:34,430 --> 00:14:41,310 designed around helping answer questions to not only politicians but to our agencies, 163 00:14:41,310 --> 00:14:46,220 our fire managers, and to line officers. 164 00:14:46,220 --> 00:14:48,199 Not all the questions that we have are known. 165 00:14:48,199 --> 00:14:52,040 Sometimes we don't know what we don't know and we don't know what we need to ask, but 166 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,649 what we do know for certain is that every year we're going to have fires and every year 167 00:14:55,649 --> 00:15:02,129 we have people encroaching into the urban interface with more structures being built. 168 00:15:02,129 --> 00:15:08,899 There is more potential for urban interface conflicts, which is a big priority. 169 00:15:08,899 --> 00:15:13,529 If we're waiting for an air tanker to come across two geographic areas, our fire now 170 00:15:13,529 --> 00:15:17,339 has time to establish a foothold and increase our resistance to control. 171 00:15:17,339 --> 00:15:22,689 If we have one that's waiting thirty minutes away, obviously our probability of success 172 00:15:22,689 --> 00:15:24,240 is much higher. 173 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:28,080 Aerial firefighting use and effectiveness study in my eyes can help us in a couple of ways. 174 00:15:28,380 --> 00:15:34,060 One, as a duty officer, it can provide me with some data, some facts, and 175 00:15:34,070 --> 00:15:39,490 some quantifiable tangibles that I would be able to sit down with let's say a new line 176 00:15:39,490 --> 00:15:44,680 officer or a new district ranger and walk through why we do certain things under certain 177 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:48,560 conditions and why we don't do certain things under certain conditions. 178 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:54,899 Another one from an aerial supervision perspective is with the influx of technology that we have 179 00:15:54,899 --> 00:15:59,149 with mobile devices, with electronic flight bags with thermal imaging capabilities out 180 00:15:59,149 --> 00:16:05,180 of aircraft, I see some opportunities into the future of being able to actually 181 00:16:05,180 --> 00:16:10,660 communicate statistical probabilities of retardant working under given situations. 182 00:16:10,820 --> 00:16:15,720 As an aerial supervisor, understanding that when fire reaches a certain intensity, we 183 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:20,350 all know, those of us that have been on the ground and have been out there digging line 184 00:16:20,350 --> 00:16:24,839 and spending years with sleeping with our heads in the dirt, we can understand because 185 00:16:24,839 --> 00:16:25,889 we have that intuition. 186 00:16:25,889 --> 00:16:30,050 We have those slides built that this fire is going to continue to burn until something 187 00:16:30,050 --> 00:16:33,269 changes, but we need to be able to quantify what that is. 188 00:16:33,269 --> 00:16:34,699 The intangibles. 189 00:16:34,700 --> 00:16:39,220 Why won't retardant work under these situations or why would it work under certain situations. 190 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:45,920 We teach our younger folks coming up the things that we know as individuals 191 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:51,440 how to manage fires, how to manage people, what you do when you order an air tanker, 192 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:55,379 but we haven't really institutionalized a lot of that knowledge. 193 00:16:55,379 --> 00:17:03,029 One of the shorter term goals for this program is to start looking at how we can 194 00:17:03,029 --> 00:17:05,270 better pass on that knowledge. 195 00:17:05,270 --> 00:17:10,980 One, to define what makes for a successful drop. 196 00:17:10,980 --> 00:17:15,529 What makes for a successful use of an aerial asset. 197 00:17:15,529 --> 00:17:21,209 We want to come up with a way to better pass on knowledge and to teach people how to really 198 00:17:21,209 --> 00:17:26,600 understand and use the aerial assets that we do have so that they can make better decisions 199 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,510 and so that they can also support the decisions that they are making. 200 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:34,960 Training is one of the most important components of our entire operation. 201 00:17:35,260 --> 00:17:37,320 Training sets the standard. 202 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:41,610 I think of a career as building a house, you have to start with a strong foundation. 203 00:17:41,610 --> 00:17:46,510 If you build a weak foundation and you continue through your career with that weak foundation, 204 00:17:46,510 --> 00:17:47,890 that house isn't going to last very long. 205 00:17:47,890 --> 00:17:50,760 It's not going to be very durable or resilient. 206 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:55,250 If you have a strong foundation and training and you've received quality instruction and 207 00:17:55,250 --> 00:18:00,230 quality mentorship, it's going to set the tone for your entire career and 208 00:18:00,230 --> 00:18:05,140 then people as they move into middle management positions and leadership positions will then 209 00:18:05,140 --> 00:18:08,669 in turn reflect back on that and pay that forward. 210 00:18:08,669 --> 00:18:14,380 The national fire community needs to stay tuned and be ready to find more information 211 00:18:14,380 --> 00:18:20,820 out from the data they're collecting, the information they're gathering and how we can do business better.