1 00:00:04,170 --> 00:00:06,438 Useful weather information depends upon the generation 2 00:00:06,539 --> 00:00:09,074 of accurate forecasts and their timely distribution. 3 00:00:09,175 --> 00:00:11,542 It is then the responsibility of the person on the ground 4 00:00:11,643 --> 00:00:13,778 to take the time to listen to and have the knowledge 5 00:00:13,879 --> 00:00:16,815 and skills to comprehend the information. 6 00:00:16,916 --> 00:00:19,017 This information, along with personal observations 7 00:00:19,118 --> 00:00:21,586 and local knowledge can then be applied. 8 00:00:21,687 --> 00:00:23,121 So how do you interpret the information 9 00:00:23,222 --> 00:00:24,823 in a fire weather forecast? 10 00:00:24,924 --> 00:00:26,991 How is it different when you read it versus listening to it 11 00:00:27,093 --> 00:00:28,960 over the radio, and how do you give it 12 00:00:29,061 --> 00:00:30,929 or receive it in a briefing? 13 00:00:31,030 --> 00:00:32,797 Rick Ochoa works for predictive Services 14 00:00:32,898 --> 00:00:34,699 at the National Interagency Fire Center. 15 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,036 He has written many fire weather forecasts. 16 00:00:38,137 --> 00:00:39,871 We hope he can help you to interpret the content 17 00:00:39,972 --> 00:00:44,175 of the forecasts you see, hear and deliver every day. 18 00:00:44,276 --> 00:00:47,445 The main components of a Fire Weather Forecast are first: 19 00:00:47,613 --> 00:00:48,213 THE HEADLINES. 20 00:00:48,314 --> 00:00:51,816 The headlirning, 21 00:00:51,917 --> 00:00:55,886 a Fire Weather Watch; something real critical 22 00:00:55,988 --> 00:00:59,224 And if I can explain what a Red Flag Warning is, 23 00:00:59,325 --> 00:01:01,892 a Red Flag Warning is a combination 24 00:01:01,994 --> 00:01:06,631 of critical fire weather, such as winds, dry lightning, 25 00:01:06,732 --> 00:01:08,533 in combination with dry fuels. 26 00:01:08,634 --> 00:01:12,570 These warnings and watches are provided for firefighter safety. 27 00:01:12,671 --> 00:01:16,508 A warning, a Red Flag Warning means those conditions are 28 00:01:16,609 --> 00:01:18,543 either occurring or eminent. 29 00:01:18,644 --> 00:01:21,979 A Fire Weather Watch means that those conditions may occur 30 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,883 in the near future; in the next 12 to 48 hours. 31 00:01:25,984 --> 00:01:30,555 The good warning or good watch has both a geographic location, 32 00:01:30,656 --> 00:01:33,291 such as the Boise National Forest, 33 00:01:33,392 --> 00:01:36,927 in addition to a particular fire weather zone number. 34 00:01:37,029 --> 00:01:40,465 The WEATHER DISCUSSION will talk about the synoptic features 35 00:01:40,566 --> 00:01:43,434 such as: cold fronts, high pressure ridges, 36 00:01:43,536 --> 00:01:47,705 low pressure troughs, and so, that's producing the weather. 37 00:01:47,806 --> 00:01:53,311 A lot of times these forecasts are very detailed and very long 38 00:01:53,412 --> 00:01:55,746 and it's important for the listener to try and pull 39 00:01:55,847 --> 00:01:58,583 out what are the important things like: 40 00:01:58,684 --> 00:02:02,654 cold fronts are very important, any kind of wind shifts, 41 00:02:02,754 --> 00:02:07,392 thunderstorms, turning hotter, turning drier, things like that. 42 00:02:07,493 --> 00:02:09,860 So you should really be listening 43 00:02:09,961 --> 00:02:12,397 for those weather features that are really going 44 00:02:12,498 --> 00:02:16,201 to affect the conditions on your fire. 45 00:02:16,302 --> 00:02:18,836 The first element in a Fire Weather Forecast is the SKY 46 00:02:18,937 --> 00:02:22,006 WEATHER: and that'll be the sky conditions, whether it's cloudy 47 00:02:22,107 --> 00:02:25,310 or clear or partly cloudy, and a weather element like, 48 00:02:25,411 --> 00:02:29,980 thunderstorms, rain showers, fog, things like that. 49 00:02:30,082 --> 00:02:33,951 So pay particular attention to those things that are critical 50 00:02:34,052 --> 00:02:35,787 such as thunderstorms. 51 00:02:35,888 --> 00:02:39,023 The next element is TEMPERATURE: and it'll give you a range 52 00:02:39,124 --> 00:02:42,259 of temperatures for your particular fire weather area. 53 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,196 And it'll often times give you a trend, whether it's going 54 00:02:45,297 --> 00:02:49,133 to be five degrees warmer, five degrees cooler, and so on. 55 00:02:49,234 --> 00:02:52,303 The next one is HUMIDITY: it'll give you again, 56 00:02:52,404 --> 00:02:55,707 a range of humidity values, along with a trend. 57 00:02:55,808 --> 00:02:59,077 And after that is the WIND: with the winds you'll get a variety, 58 00:02:59,177 --> 00:03:01,345 you'll get slope valley winds, 59 00:03:01,446 --> 00:03:04,415 ridge top winds, twenty-foot winds. 60 00:03:04,516 --> 00:03:09,621 And twenty-foot winds are those winds twenty feet 61 00:03:09,722 --> 00:03:12,523 So, if you're dealing with an area with just grass, 62 00:03:12,625 --> 00:03:13,658 it's going to be twenty feet. 63 00:03:13,759 --> 00:03:15,392 If you're dealing in timber, 64 00:03:15,494 --> 00:03:19,364 it's twenty above the average tops of those trees there. 65 00:03:19,465 --> 00:03:21,600 Obviously, if you're on a ridge top you want 66 00:03:21,701 --> 00:03:22,800 to listen for those winds. 67 00:03:22,901 --> 00:03:25,169 If you're down in the valley, pay particular attention 68 00:03:25,271 --> 00:03:27,572 to those slope and valley winds. 69 00:03:27,673 --> 00:03:32,844 The HAINES INDEX is a index that combines stability and moisture. 70 00:03:32,945 --> 00:03:37,915 And the values range from 2 to 6, 6 being High. 71 00:03:38,016 --> 00:03:42,387 And so this index does not include things like wind 72 00:03:42,488 --> 00:03:45,557 or other factors like that; it's strictly a moisture 73 00:03:45,658 --> 00:03:49,294 and stability of that atmosphere close to the ground. 74 00:03:49,395 --> 00:03:52,864 So again, what I'd be listening for there is if there's a Haines 75 00:03:52,965 --> 00:03:55,600 of 5 or 6, Moderate or High, 76 00:03:55,701 --> 00:03:57,969 those are the times I'd really be concerned about. 77 00:03:58,070 --> 00:04:01,606 If it's a 2, 3 or 4, typically those are the lower ranges 78 00:04:01,707 --> 00:04:03,775 going to be an issue 79 00:04:03,876 --> 00:04:06,744 with stability or moisture. 80 00:04:06,846 --> 00:04:11,682 LAL, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL talk about the number 81 00:04:11,783 --> 00:04:14,652 of lightning strikes you're going to have over a given area. 82 00:04:14,753 --> 00:04:19,057 They range from 1, which is no thunder storms to a 6, 83 00:04:19,158 --> 00:04:22,426 which is numerous thunderstorms, typically dry. 84 00:04:22,527 --> 00:04:28,466 So again, I'd be listening for, you know, values like 3, 4, 5, 85 00:04:28,567 --> 00:04:30,601 hose are the ones that are going 86 00:04:30,702 --> 00:04:32,403 to contain more thunderstorms. 87 00:04:32,504 --> 00:04:33,838 In addition to the thunderstorms, 88 00:04:33,939 --> 00:04:36,241 listen very closely as to whether they're going 89 00:04:36,342 --> 00:04:41,012 to be wet thunderstorms / dry thunderstorms or a mixture. 90 00:04:41,113 --> 00:04:44,448 The MIXING HEIGHT basically tells the firefighter 91 00:04:44,550 --> 00:04:46,284 that lower atmosphere. 92 00:04:46,385 --> 00:04:48,219 What is the depth of that atmosphere that's going 93 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:49,487 to be well mixed? 94 00:04:49,588 --> 00:04:53,124 Typically, in the afternoons it'll be quite high; 95 00:04:53,225 --> 00:04:55,259 it could be several thousand feet. 96 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,228 typically those mixing layers, 97 00:04:57,329 --> 00:04:59,798 mixing levels come down quite a bit; 98 00:04:59,899 --> 00:05:01,699 they might just be few hundred feet. 99 00:05:01,801 --> 00:05:05,169 That's important because the higher the mixing height, 100 00:05:05,270 --> 00:05:08,706 the greater the instability, and so with that you're going 101 00:05:08,808 --> 00:05:12,644 to probably see more fire activity, fire behavior 102 00:05:12,745 --> 00:05:14,479 with the greater mixing heights. 103 00:05:14,580 --> 00:05:17,081 TRANSPORT WINDS are important because you want to know 104 00:05:17,182 --> 00:05:19,050 where that smoke's going to be going. 105 00:05:19,151 --> 00:05:23,455 So that'll, the average winds within that mixed layer 106 00:05:23,556 --> 00:05:27,325 as to whether their going to be coming out of the south 107 00:05:27,426 --> 00:05:29,928 or So, if you have highive you mixing heights 108 00:05:30,028 --> 00:05:33,598 and high transport winds, you're going 109 00:05:33,699 --> 00:05:36,067 Low mixing height and low winds are typically going 110 00:05:36,168 --> 00:05:37,702 to be smoke problems. 111 00:05:37,803 --> 00:05:39,838 The EXTENDED FORECAST: There what I'd be looking 112 00:05:39,939 --> 00:05:41,806 for is anything out of the ordinary: 113 00:05:41,907 --> 00:05:43,608 Are there going to be thunderstorms? 114 00:05:43,709 --> 00:05:45,710 Are there going to be strong winds? 115 00:05:45,811 --> 00:05:48,546 Get an idea about whether it's going 116 00:05:48,647 --> 00:05:50,982 A lot of times the to be tmost interesting 117 00:05:50,984 --> 00:05:53,551 and most significant weather 118 00:05:53,652 --> 00:05:59,690 in the extended period so tpay close attention to that. 119 00:05:59,791 --> 00:06:01,792 Fire weather forecasts are full of useful information 120 00:06:01,893 --> 00:06:04,262 and are readily available throughout the fire season. 121 00:06:04,363 --> 00:06:07,265 The next exercise is intended to provide an opportunity 122 00:06:07,366 --> 00:06:09,033 to translate a fire weather forecast 123 00:06:09,134 --> 00:06:11,135 into the form of a briefing. 124 00:06:11,236 --> 00:06:13,171 Your facilitator will now set up the exercise.