1 00:00:16,740 --> 00:00:22,420 by now you're aware that our subject is 2 00:00:19,689 --> 00:00:25,119 weather weather related to forest fires 3 00:00:22,420 --> 00:00:28,000 my name is Louie Allen weather is my 4 00:00:25,119 --> 00:00:30,490 business and my job is to get across to 5 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:32,619 you the importance in the role that 6 00:00:30,490 --> 00:00:35,410 weather plays in the start and spread of 7 00:00:32,619 --> 00:00:38,170 forest fires the weather service 8 00:00:35,410 --> 00:00:40,690 provides forecasts on a number of scales 9 00:00:38,170 --> 00:00:41,920 to make sure that firefighters are 10 00:00:40,690 --> 00:00:44,440 getting the information they need 11 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:46,210 whatever type of incident they go on the 12 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,830 types of forecast that we issue range 13 00:00:46,210 --> 00:00:51,250 from the daily forecast that's available 14 00:00:47,830 --> 00:00:52,839 every day twice a day to a specialized 15 00:00:51,250 --> 00:00:55,330 spot forecast if you're doing a 16 00:00:52,839 --> 00:00:57,430 prescribed burn or a wildfire that's 17 00:00:55,330 --> 00:01:00,040 just started or an incident 18 00:00:57,430 --> 00:01:01,659 meteorologist can be on your fire and 19 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,189 they're a great resource for those 20 00:01:01,659 --> 00:01:09,640 things that you need to know about the 21 00:01:03,189 --> 00:01:11,770 weather when you're out on a fire you 22 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:14,649 can experience a whole range of winds 23 00:01:11,770 --> 00:01:18,189 you can experience in the groundhog day 24 00:01:14,649 --> 00:01:21,219 effect of stagnant weather your incident 25 00:01:18,189 --> 00:01:23,170 action plan or your forecast says ok 26 00:01:21,219 --> 00:01:24,909 today is going to be like yesterday not 27 00:01:23,170 --> 00:01:26,740 much change those are the types of 28 00:01:24,909 --> 00:01:28,719 verbal clues you're getting that there's 29 00:01:26,740 --> 00:01:31,770 no real major weather system coming in 30 00:01:28,719 --> 00:01:31,770 that's going to change things 31 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:40,920 so what happens when you're out there 32 00:01:38,490 --> 00:01:43,170 and you're getting those verbal clues of 33 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:45,630 okay today is gonna be like yesterday 34 00:01:43,170 --> 00:01:47,880 high-pressure not much change you're 35 00:01:45,630 --> 00:01:50,369 actually looking for the convective 36 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:53,340 winds that's kind of a fancy more 37 00:01:50,369 --> 00:01:57,119 technical term for when the Sun hits a 38 00:01:53,340 --> 00:01:59,430 slope it heats up the air rises and you 39 00:01:57,119 --> 00:02:01,590 start all these motions in place and 40 00:01:59,430 --> 00:02:03,869 then when the Sun sets or it's not 41 00:02:01,590 --> 00:02:06,090 hitting on a slope you don't have that 42 00:02:03,869 --> 00:02:08,039 radiation so you're gonna be a little 43 00:02:06,090 --> 00:02:10,259 bit cooler and those little subtle 44 00:02:08,039 --> 00:02:13,440 temperature differences they create wind 45 00:02:10,259 --> 00:02:15,959 up slope up valley during the day down 46 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:18,120 slope down valley at night and that 47 00:02:15,959 --> 00:02:20,640 should be reflected in your your I met 48 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:23,549 forecast or any spot forecast that you 49 00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:25,350 get you're going to get squirrely winds 50 00:02:23,549 --> 00:02:26,760 you're going to get things are just a 51 00:02:25,350 --> 00:02:28,440 little bit different we're in a 52 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:31,799 different direction from what the I'm at 53 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:34,560 or that that forecast has for your area 54 00:02:31,799 --> 00:02:37,260 but generally they should be relatively 55 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:39,030 accurate those winds so on a persistent 56 00:02:37,260 --> 00:02:41,459 day where you're you're heating up 57 00:02:39,030 --> 00:02:43,739 during the day it's a nice clear day no 58 00:02:41,459 --> 00:02:46,760 major fronts no big cumulus build ups 59 00:02:43,739 --> 00:02:52,160 you can't expect those terrain induced 60 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:52,160 upslope downslope type of winds 61 00:02:54,590 --> 00:03:00,239 the second type of wind that you can get 62 00:02:57,540 --> 00:03:03,540 during the afternoon especially is 63 00:03:00,239 --> 00:03:06,390 called mixdown when the Sun starts to 64 00:03:03,540 --> 00:03:10,050 heat up the atmosphere sometimes you'll 65 00:03:06,390 --> 00:03:12,030 hear it at your IEP briefing we're going 66 00:03:10,050 --> 00:03:14,400 to have mixdown wins or the inversions 67 00:03:12,030 --> 00:03:17,340 going to break between 1,300 and 1500 68 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:19,110 today you have that mixing that occurs 69 00:03:17,340 --> 00:03:20,940 and you have all the winds that are a 70 00:03:19,110 --> 00:03:23,370 little bit stronger above the mixing 71 00:03:20,940 --> 00:03:25,769 depth and then as that inversion level 72 00:03:23,370 --> 00:03:28,920 breaks all that momentum all that umph 73 00:03:25,769 --> 00:03:32,160 all that push from the upper-level winds 74 00:03:28,920 --> 00:03:34,290 can mix down to the surface so what 75 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,549 you're looking for out in the field to 76 00:03:34,290 --> 00:03:38,040 clue you in that that could be an 77 00:03:35,549 --> 00:03:39,709 important part of the wind equation that 78 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:42,540 day is to listen to your I'm at 79 00:03:39,709 --> 00:03:43,769 inversion level breaking or we're going 80 00:03:42,540 --> 00:03:46,079 to have some stronger winds this 81 00:03:43,769 --> 00:03:49,560 afternoon or expect the inversion to 82 00:03:46,079 --> 00:03:54,049 break at 13:30 today that's a clue that 83 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:54,049 those types of winds can kick in 84 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:08,590 a gradient Lynda's named because of the 85 00:04:06,670 --> 00:04:11,829 gradient that exists between a high and 86 00:04:08,590 --> 00:04:15,099 the low pressure system in the 87 00:04:11,829 --> 00:04:16,989 summertime those changes may not be 88 00:04:15,099 --> 00:04:20,169 accompanied by rain especially in the 89 00:04:16,989 --> 00:04:22,539 West so you're looking for terms such as 90 00:04:20,169 --> 00:04:26,560 dry cold frontal passage today or a weak 91 00:04:22,539 --> 00:04:29,639 cold front or trough low-pressure all 92 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:33,639 those kind of signal gradient one day 93 00:04:29,639 --> 00:04:35,530 it's very tricky to assess how much of 94 00:04:33,639 --> 00:04:38,470 that gradient wind is actually going to 95 00:04:35,530 --> 00:04:41,110 be experienced on the fireline if the 96 00:04:38,470 --> 00:04:45,009 storm or the front is powerful enough 97 00:04:41,110 --> 00:04:46,900 those winds can surface and they can 98 00:04:45,009 --> 00:04:49,210 take what is typically an upslope 99 00:04:46,900 --> 00:04:58,509 downslope wind and drive it in the 100 00:04:49,210 --> 00:05:00,280 opposite direction and then the last one 101 00:04:58,509 --> 00:05:02,500 which is extremely important as if you 102 00:05:00,280 --> 00:05:04,720 get those cumulus build ups if you get a 103 00:05:02,500 --> 00:05:06,580 regular thunderstorm out there you can 104 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:08,949 have convective or thunderstorm winds 105 00:05:06,580 --> 00:05:10,870 they can be very erratic they can be 106 00:05:08,949 --> 00:05:12,490 very gusty they're critically important 107 00:05:10,870 --> 00:05:15,460 so if you're out there and you're 108 00:05:12,490 --> 00:05:17,680 noticing thunderstorms develop or even 109 00:05:15,460 --> 00:05:20,169 moderately it doesn't even have to be 110 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:22,530 raining or thundering moderate build ups 111 00:05:20,169 --> 00:05:24,849 you know big puffy beautiful clouds 112 00:05:22,530 --> 00:05:27,460 might not be so beautiful on the line 113 00:05:24,849 --> 00:05:30,070 because they can induce some winds you 114 00:05:27,460 --> 00:05:31,960 know your standard cumulus build up will 115 00:05:30,070 --> 00:05:34,120 give you a 30 to 40 mile-per-hour wind 116 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:37,270 that wasn't there and it'll come out of 117 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,949 nowhere the big thunderstorms they can 118 00:05:37,270 --> 00:05:41,560 really really cause some havoc because 119 00:05:38,949 --> 00:05:46,080 you can get 50 to even 80 mile an hour 120 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:46,080 down burst dry winds out of those things 121 00:05:49,750 --> 00:05:54,730 if you're lucky enough to have an 122 00:05:51,700 --> 00:05:58,030 incident meteorologist on your fire you 123 00:05:54,730 --> 00:06:01,500 have the capability of having a 124 00:05:58,030 --> 00:06:05,020 localized I ap forecast or briefing 125 00:06:01,500 --> 00:06:07,990 what's not going to be in that forecast 126 00:06:05,020 --> 00:06:10,240 is the exact weather at the exact time 127 00:06:07,990 --> 00:06:12,940 and moment where you're going to be on a 128 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:15,160 specific division fighting the fire even 129 00:06:12,940 --> 00:06:18,910 though the forecast is designed for that 130 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:20,590 specific spot your eye ap and your 131 00:06:18,910 --> 00:06:25,630 briefing is still going to be a more 132 00:06:20,590 --> 00:06:28,630 generalized type of briefing or piece of 133 00:06:25,630 --> 00:06:31,320 information so when an eye mat gives you 134 00:06:28,630 --> 00:06:36,250 that forecast we're giving you a 135 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:37,330 yardstick we're giving you that even 136 00:06:36,250 --> 00:06:40,270 though it's a yard it's pretty 137 00:06:37,330 --> 00:06:42,250 specialized for your fire the type of 138 00:06:40,270 --> 00:06:43,510 weather you're going to be seeing at the 139 00:06:42,250 --> 00:06:46,240 incident is going to be measured in 140 00:06:43,510 --> 00:06:49,090 inches and not the yard those inches are 141 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:51,970 where your personal judgement comes into 142 00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:54,280 play our embers drifting up up into the 143 00:06:51,970 --> 00:06:57,370 air instead of sideways are the winds 144 00:06:54,280 --> 00:06:59,200 starting to pick up what are the tops of 145 00:06:57,370 --> 00:07:01,720 the trees doing or they swaying back and 146 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:03,430 forth those types of clues it should 147 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:06,520 give you a kind of an instant brief 148 00:07:03,430 --> 00:07:08,740 snapshot in addition to what the I'm at 149 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,930 gives you that things are developing 150 00:07:08,740 --> 00:07:14,860 things are changing things are happening 151 00:07:10,930 --> 00:07:17,169 at that time of day so what and I'm it 152 00:07:14,860 --> 00:07:19,540 can't do is to give you that momentary 153 00:07:17,169 --> 00:07:22,990 snapshot where you are at that 154 00:07:19,540 --> 00:07:24,850 particular moment the exact weather 155 00:07:22,990 --> 00:07:27,580 conditions where you're standing you 156 00:07:24,850 --> 00:07:30,430 should have a 90 percent idea but that 157 00:07:27,580 --> 00:07:32,700 10 percent has to be filled in by your 158 00:07:30,430 --> 00:07:35,380 training by your awareness and by your 159 00:07:32,700 --> 00:07:38,130 your situational awareness of the 160 00:07:35,380 --> 00:07:38,130 surrounding area 161 00:07:41,809 --> 00:07:48,150 when you're out on the line and you're 162 00:07:44,370 --> 00:07:49,740 you're in canopy you can pick up on some 163 00:07:48,150 --> 00:07:51,930 visual clues of how the winds are 164 00:07:49,740 --> 00:07:53,699 changing if it's the morning you can 165 00:07:51,930 --> 00:07:55,860 kind of take a look look up in the sky 166 00:07:53,699 --> 00:08:00,029 to see if there's any cumulus clouds or 167 00:07:55,860 --> 00:08:02,210 any visual indicators of instability if 168 00:08:00,029 --> 00:08:07,050 your atmosphere is absolutely clear that 169 00:08:02,210 --> 00:08:12,089 can be also a indicator of instability 170 00:08:07,050 --> 00:08:14,879 if you have a little puffy sheep like 171 00:08:12,089 --> 00:08:17,669 looking clouds they're actually called 172 00:08:14,879 --> 00:08:19,710 flock as clouds a flock of sheep you can 173 00:08:17,669 --> 00:08:20,939 remember it that way if it looks like 174 00:08:19,710 --> 00:08:23,699 there's a bunch of sheep at 9:00 in the 175 00:08:20,939 --> 00:08:25,559 morning up there it's unstable and you 176 00:08:23,699 --> 00:08:27,930 can kind of expect that vertical 177 00:08:25,559 --> 00:08:30,089 movement of the wind later in the 178 00:08:27,930 --> 00:08:32,099 afternoon or maybe even thunderstorm 179 00:08:30,089 --> 00:08:34,949 development dry thunderstorm development 180 00:08:32,099 --> 00:08:36,870 so what can you do as a firefighter to 181 00:08:34,949 --> 00:08:39,300 key in on these winds first of all 182 00:08:36,870 --> 00:08:42,469 listen to your forecast listen for the 183 00:08:39,300 --> 00:08:45,000 term unstable today or high Haines today 184 00:08:42,469 --> 00:08:47,279 that's the first clue and you can 185 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:50,250 combine that when you go out on the 186 00:08:47,279 --> 00:08:52,560 ground with your visual indicators smoke 187 00:08:50,250 --> 00:08:55,019 can actually inhibit winds it can block 188 00:08:52,560 --> 00:08:57,149 out the Sun so much that you're not 189 00:08:55,019 --> 00:08:59,430 going to get the convective winds it's 190 00:08:57,149 --> 00:09:01,980 gonna be very kind of a surreal strange 191 00:08:59,430 --> 00:09:03,569 you know you're in smoke and nothing's 192 00:09:01,980 --> 00:09:05,970 happening and you expect something to go 193 00:09:03,569 --> 00:09:07,680 but it's so thick that nothing happens 194 00:09:05,970 --> 00:09:09,690 but if you're in a run-of-the-mill fire 195 00:09:07,680 --> 00:09:11,310 what's relatively clear it's the 196 00:09:09,690 --> 00:09:13,589 afternoon and you start seeing that 197 00:09:11,310 --> 00:09:16,319 smoke instead of spreading out 198 00:09:13,589 --> 00:09:18,120 horizontally and creating that layer if 199 00:09:16,319 --> 00:09:22,649 the visibility starts to improve 200 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:24,600 suddenly if you see smoke getting up 201 00:09:22,649 --> 00:09:26,399 higher into the atmosphere if you see it 202 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:28,980 you know punching through above the 203 00:09:26,399 --> 00:09:31,709 treeline is starting to bubble up again 204 00:09:28,980 --> 00:09:35,160 indicator that the cap is broken that 205 00:09:31,709 --> 00:09:37,709 those winds kids could surface it in as 206 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:40,260 in a matter of thirty minutes or even 15 207 00:09:37,709 --> 00:09:42,000 minutes so watching smoke is vital it 208 00:09:40,260 --> 00:09:44,910 can clue you in on when the inversions 209 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:47,490 breaking you could get spotted in the 210 00:09:44,910 --> 00:09:49,079 direction of where that smoke is going 211 00:09:47,490 --> 00:09:50,060 if there are active embers that are 212 00:09:49,079 --> 00:09:53,030 floating up and 213 00:09:50,060 --> 00:09:56,150 into the call so it's it's a great 214 00:09:53,030 --> 00:09:58,100 indicator so using that side effect of 215 00:09:56,150 --> 00:10:00,490 the fire to determine what your winds 216 00:09:58,100 --> 00:10:00,490 are doing 217 00:10:04,420 --> 00:10:10,519 feedback from the field is critical to 218 00:10:07,490 --> 00:10:15,860 performance and just because a forecast 219 00:10:10,519 --> 00:10:17,329 doesn't work one day doesn't mean that 220 00:10:15,860 --> 00:10:19,399 you're not going to get quality good 221 00:10:17,329 --> 00:10:22,190 forecasts later on and those quality 222 00:10:19,399 --> 00:10:24,769 forecasts are only generated when we 223 00:10:22,190 --> 00:10:26,630 receive information back of how well 224 00:10:24,769 --> 00:10:28,430 we're doing and if you don't give the 225 00:10:26,630 --> 00:10:31,130 data back we don't know what's happening 226 00:10:28,430 --> 00:10:32,990 and we can't build the database to 227 00:10:31,130 --> 00:10:35,779 improve the forecast not only for now 228 00:10:32,990 --> 00:10:38,149 but ten years down the line if you go 229 00:10:35,779 --> 00:10:41,839 back to that area we have a weather 230 00:10:38,149 --> 00:10:44,630 record for that area so not only are you 231 00:10:41,839 --> 00:10:46,819 helping your forecast by helping us 232 00:10:44,630 --> 00:10:50,029 finding out how we're actually doing 233 00:10:46,819 --> 00:10:53,480 you're building a legacy of making sure 234 00:10:50,029 --> 00:10:55,430 that future firefighters are protected 235 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:58,750 from better forecasts from that data 236 00:10:55,430 --> 00:10:58,750 that you're giving us 237 00:11:02,170 --> 00:11:07,870 fire weather forecasts are designed to 238 00:11:04,779 --> 00:11:10,060 make sure that you are safe and you 239 00:11:07,870 --> 00:11:12,820 can't be safe unless you have a little 240 00:11:10,060 --> 00:11:15,670 bit of air on the side of caution we 241 00:11:12,820 --> 00:11:19,089 have a tendency to over warned and over 242 00:11:15,670 --> 00:11:22,990 predict for a purpose and that purpose 243 00:11:19,089 --> 00:11:26,709 is to capture bad events and not miss 244 00:11:22,990 --> 00:11:29,230 them and that results in some false 245 00:11:26,709 --> 00:11:32,440 alarms it's better for us to over warn 246 00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:35,110 and over do it in terms of safety and to 247 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:38,410 under do the forecast and then somebody 248 00:11:35,110 --> 00:11:40,870 says that wind shift was unexpected we 249 00:11:38,410 --> 00:11:41,700 didn't have it in the forecast it wasn't 250 00:11:40,870 --> 00:11:45,279 there 251 00:11:41,700 --> 00:11:49,180 well it should be there we strive for it 252 00:11:45,279 --> 00:11:51,700 to be there and it's a safety issue in 253 00:11:49,180 --> 00:11:53,740 the final analysis however you must add 254 00:11:51,700 --> 00:11:57,250 your own knowledge and understanding of 255 00:11:53,740 --> 00:12:00,160 fire behavior as fire control men the 256 00:11:57,250 --> 00:12:03,180 weather indeed is a very important part 257 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,180 of your business 258 00:12:07,450 --> 00:12:09,510 you