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- [Narrator] The nation's interagency fire management
professionals ignite thousands
of prescribed fires each year.
Between 2008 and 2014, over 33,000
prescribed fires were implemented.
Less than 50 of these fires resulted in declared wildfires
and is evidence that 99.8% of the time,
prescribed fires are successfully implemented,
stay within the project area
and meet the burn plan objectives.
As learning organizations,
we are always proactive in order to learn from
and continue to reduce the number of times
when our experience and the plan aren't enough.
We are a key part of an increased effort nationwide
to increase both the number and scale of prescribed fires
as a means of managing living
and dead plant materials, or fuels.
A heavy focus has been placed on
using both broadcast burning, and pile burning.
Prescribed fire operations, as we've pointed out,
have a very high success rate,
but practitioners need to remain on top of changes
in weather patterns, policy and guidance documents,
and available tools and resources.
Even when carefully planned, prescribed fires
can still present highly dynamic situations
with challenges that increase the risk
of a declared wildfire or other undesired outcomes.
In this video, we will address
three key focus areas, including:
Changing wind conditions;
Pile burning;
and Multi-jurisdictional fires.
Let's take a closer look at some changes
and new information to help ensure we continue to improve
the impressive rate of successful prescribed fires.
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Recent reviews of individual fires
indicate that rapid changes in weather patterns
have created problems for some.
Often, fire professionals burn
in advance of approaching cold fronts
in order to help manage the fire's movement
and smoke dispersal.
However, the arrival of a cold front
can bring with it erratic winds,
with winds shifting and increasing dramatically.
Your holding plan and holding resources,
including personnel and equipment,
need to account for this predictable,
but challenging nature of a frontal passage.
In one prescribed fire review,
the frontal passage that was predicted to arrive
between noon and one o'clock arrived as forecast,
but burning progressed slower than anticipated
and at one o'clock ignition and holding operations
were still taking place; a slop over occurred
at about 1:30 under the predicted frontal wind conditions
which quickly exceeded control
and burned onto adjacent property.
Reviews of other declared wildfires
also illustrate the importance
of adequate plans for patrol and mop-up.
Fire professionals understand the importance of mop-up
but sometimes rely too much on building a plan
based on previous prescribed fire plans
or past experience alone.
Such recollections or reports may not adequately
convey struggles encountered in the past,
such as when a burn was a near escape,
or account for current climatological differences
that could alter the outcome.
It's helpful to watch for shifts
in your local burn season over time
and examine climatological models to evaluate
potential impacts of shifts in weather patterns.
Your local geographic area dispatch center
or local fire weather forecaster
is the most valuable tool when looking for such trends.
While short-term weather forecasts
may be favorable on the day of a planned burn,
problems have arisen when planning
did not consider the long-term forecast.
The patrol and mop-up plans need to include
an examination of the longer-range forecast
and overall conditions in a region.
Consider working with Long Term Fire Analysts
and/or Fire Behavior Analysts
to review weather and fire behavior potential.
Those reviewing a declared wildfire
described how the days of ignition
had favorable weather conditions
but noted that the long-term forecast did not look ideal,
with below normal snowpack and warmer winter temperatures.
In the past, fire officials in the area
had relied on snowpack to help limit
the spread of prescribed fires.
Numerous other declared wildfire reviews
highlight the need to look at long-term drought indicators
and the potential for limited precipitation
in the days following the planned start
of a prescribed fire.
At a another declared wildfire,
the site had received nearly three inches of rain
the week before the scheduled burn.
The pile-burning operation lasted for four days,
and the area received another two inches of rain
during that time.
But as ignition was completed, the weather shifted,
and became hot, dry, and breezy.
Within four days of the last rain,
the prescribed burn was declared a wildfire.
Although there had been adequate precipitation
before and during the burn, weather conditions
changed quickly after ignition was complete.
This illustrates the importance
of looking at the area's general dryness,
as well as long-term forecasts.
When planning a burn, always consider the temperature
and precipitation outlook for not only the planned ignition,
holding, mop up and patrol periods
but also look further out,
up to three weeks or more depending on conditions.
Take time to look at your area's information
on the drought index.
The following are some helpful tools
when planning and implementing prescribed fires
in a changing environment:
National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center:
This includes predictions related to upcoming weather trends
that may be important to prescribed fire plans.
U.S. Drought Monitor Website:
This provides information on the possible impact
of any current drought on project implementation
and potential duration.
Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center:
This helps fire professionals learn from past incidents.
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While pile burning has generally been considered
a safer and less complex alternative to broadcast burning,
many declared wildfires in the past few years
have been a result of pile burns.
We will examine some of the contributing factors.
While pile burning, firefighters
may have multiple hot spots that sometimes
need careful monitoring for weeks if not months.
Broadcast burns tend to use roads or fire lines
to surround the targeted areas, and these can often
be easily patrolled in vehicle or on foot.
However, burn piles are more likely to be in remote areas
that are difficult to reach, and can be affected
by sudden or unexpected weather changes.
Terrain, particularly steep slopes,
may hinder patrol access during mop-up
and create opportunities for roll out of embers.
Those supervising and planning prescribed fires
should also consider surrounding vegetation
when working with burn piles.
Immediately adjacent vegetation is typically cleared,
but burn bosses and planners need to prepare
to manage ignition in surrounding vegetation.
Additionally, the soil in the area
may contain organic material capable
of carrying the fire beyond the planned zone.
Burn plans should include information
gathered from expected fire behavior
modeled both in and around the targeted area.
Declared wildfires have resulted from a failure
to account for fire potential in adjacent vegetation,
or from failing to consider fuel type changes
near the burn piles.
Helpful fire evaluation tools include, among others,
FlamMap, Wildland Fire Decision Support System,
Interagency Fuels Treatment Decision Support System,
and BEHAVE, which includes a useful tutorial.
The pile burn strategy is sometimes chosen
because the proximity to communities, private homes
or other structures makes broadcast burning less feasible.
This means the potential losses
associated with a declared wildfire
can be just as much if not more detrimental.
When planning a prescribed fire,
be aware not only of the risk to people and property at risk
that are adjacent to the planned project area,
but also of possible secondary effects,
such as smoke reaching roads and communities.
Burn piles also tend to hold heat longer
given the nature of the large branches or logs
and other heavy fuels that have been fully ignited.
These may smolder for days or even weeks,
which is problematic when fewer personnel are present
after the first day or two.
Reviews of recent declared wildfires
show more than adequate numbers of personnel
on the day of ignition, but those numbers rapidly fall off
in subsequent days due to competing priorities,
end-of-season staffing reductions, firefighter fatigue,
or a burn plan that failed to include a contingency plan
for long-term monitoring.
All burn plans should carefully address
the minimum personnel numbers needed
both during and after the ignition,
as well as the ideal number and source
of staffing should more be needed.
Additionally, many fire management programs
are comfortable enough with pile burns
that they become complacent.
Care should be taken to avoid this false sense of security.
It's too easy to move quickly, assuming these
will be simple, uncomplicated burns each time.
Don't assume.
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When working with multiple jurisdictions,
fire officials need to have the proper plans
and agreements in place to ensure
that questions regarding chain of command don't slow
or complicate responses if additional support is needed.
Lessons from a declared wildfire review
of a past burn pile operation
illustrated how cross-boundary prescribed fires
can create difficult situations when they are declared
wildfires that involve both jurisdictions.
During the review, firefighters felt they received
mixed messages from the two jurisdictions
regarding response plans at various times.
Lessons learned from that declared wildfire
have since helped relationships only become stronger.
The National Wildfire Coordinating Group's
Prescribed Fire Complexity Rating System
encourages advance consideration
of not only what qualifications
the involved fire officials should have but also
possible risks and mitigation plans for values at risk.
The key elements of a complexity analysis are:
Prescribed Fire Duration: How long do you expect the fire
to last, and are you planning for a longer-duration burn?
Resistance to Containment: How do climatological factors
and resource availability impact containment constraints?
Smoke Management: Are there wind direction constraints?
Do fuel conditions support a short duration burn
or will the burn continue to smoke for an extended time?
Management Organization: Are all resources local
and committed for the duration of the project?
Or will you need help?
How long will your contingency resources be available?
Attention to detail is key when preparing
and implementing a prescribed fire.
Small issues can add up and combine to create a problem
that may put people and buildings at risk.
Follow the HRO, or High Reliability Organizations,
principles of resiliency, attention to detail,
and a clear focus.
This involves having the proper attitude
toward unexpected conditions or failures.
HROs do not always avoid failure
but instead continue to generate the main outcome
of their mission despite failures.
We owe it to ourselves,
fellow land and fire management professionals,
and the public to be vigilant in planning
and implementing prescribed fires.
Understanding of declared wildfires reviews
helps us add to our understanding of how to best do this.
Burns with changing weather or fuel conditions
pile burning, and multi-jurisdictional projects
require us to use HRO principles,
solid fire behavior evaluation tools,
and a plan that addresses patrol, mop-up, contingency,
and the possibility of conversion.
Remember to evaluate changes in weather patterns,
policy guidance, available tools, and resources.
Proper attention to all these issues
can improve the success of your prescribed fire program.